The 'Super Team' Dodgers, who also dominated in statistics, said, "Expected 104 wins in the season, 99.2% chance of PS... 22% chance of winning WS, more than double that of other teams."
The 'Super Team' Dodgers, who also dominated in statistics, said, "Expected 104 wins in the season, 99.2% chance of PS... 22% chance of winning WS, more than double that of other teams."
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The Los Angeles Dodgers, which strengthened its capability even after winning the World Series last year, is expected to be the most likely candidate next year. Statistical programs, not reporters or experts' evaluations, predicted the Dodgers as the unrivaled favorite.
MLB.COM, the official website of the Major League Baseball (MLB), released the results of the PECOTA projections of Baseball Prospectus on Tuesday (Korea time). PECOTA is a program that predicts performance by repeatedly simulating a season.
MLB.COM selected several items from PECOTA's forecasting results and introduced them. The most notable was the Dodgers' expected performance. PECOTA calculated the Dodgers' 99.2 percent chance of advancing to the postseason this year. In fact, it is 100 percent. The forecasted performance of the regular season was also very high, with 104 wins. Naturally, the team ranks first in overall win percentage, and has a whopping 12 more wins than the 92nd-ranked Atlanta Braves.
In fact, the confidence in advancing to the postseason is a result that can be expected without running the program. The Dodgers made the postseason for 12 consecutive years from 2013 to 2024. Among them, they won 11 district championships and the other was ranked second in MLB overall winning percentage.
The Dodgers are highly likely to advance to the postseason than before because they have made massive reinforcement efforts over the past two years. The Dodgers has acquired Blake Snell (five-year, 182 million U.S. dollars), Tanner Scott (four-year, 72 million dollars), Kirby Yates (one-year, 13 million dollars), Blake Treinen (two-year, 22 million dollars) and Teoscar Hernandez (three-year, 66 million dollars) who are internal free agents in the posting system. In addition, the Dodgers also won in a match to recruit Roki Sasaki, who said he has the best potential in Japanese baseball with a low salary.
Of course, he was picked as the No. 1 postseason winner. MLB.COM said, "The Dodgers had 22 percent chance of winning. It was more than twice as high as other teams. The New York Yankees and Braves followed with 9 percent."
While the Dodgers expected rosy forecasts, its rival San Diego Padres remained pessimistic. The San Diego Padres started the post season by ranking second in the National League West with 93 wins and 69 losses in 2024. The team had full advantage over the Dodgers. It sought to win the district championship until the last minute and had an early advantage over the Dodgers in the post season, but failed to secure one final win and lost the game.
"San Diego was the most active team against the Dodgers in the 2024 postseason," MLB.COM reported. "San Diego put his district rival on the verge of elimination before the Dodgers won in Game 5." 스포츠토토
PECOTA believes that San Diego's strength will not continue in 2024. In fact, Scott and Kim Ha-sung, who were key players last year, left San Diego as FA, and Joe Musgrove, the key starter, cannot play the season due to elbow surgery rehabilitation. It will mark 2025 without any significant reinforcement of his power. MLB.COM said, "There are many star players in San Diego. It is somewhat surprising that they are not expected to advance to the postseason with 82 wins in 2025 (a winning percentage of 50 percent). Predictively, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who beat the Dodgers in 2023, will return to the postseason with 87 wins."
Arizona is also a team that has made aggressive reinforcements this season. By recruiting Corbin Burns, the top starting pitcher, he has built a solid starting lineup consisting of Burns, Jack Gallen, Meryl Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Christian Walker, the main hitter, has moved, but if Corbin Carroll, the 2023 Rookie of the Year who suffered a jinx in his second year last year, is revived, he can build a powerful pitching and hitting power.